Sunday, February 24, 2013

Why Microsoft Windows Could be Obsolete by 2020

We have all been watching the news and the latest developments that have led to the most rapid shifts in technology over the last 2 years. What we are seeing right before our eyes is a gigantic carrier battleship sized industry all of a sudden turn into a swift speed boat. Technologies have died or are breathing their last breath. The following synopsis of the current state of technology will lead to a more unified future of computing that will allow America to once again lead the pack in innovations, manufacturing and industrialization for computing.

Many people will disagree with the following assessment because they are looking at today and not 3-5 years from now....

Google Chromebooks, Open Source Technologies and mobile phones could potentially obsolete Microsoft Windows Desktops by 2018.

If I was a Microsoft executive, I would be loosing my mind about how to counter Google's and Apple innovations. Google is using the Microsoft playbook for decimating an enterprise's lead and market vitality. Microsoft will have no choice but to completely change their development and operational model by 2014 if they are to keep from having their entire ecosystem crash and burn like the global computer and software corporations from the 1980's, 1990's and 2000's. Microsoft will either learn and adapt or unfortunately crash and burn without rapidly changing to adapt to modern trends and future scale for mobility.

Google Chromebooks, iPhone, iPad, and Android make for the killer package to completely destroy the business line of every single PC manufacturer (Dell, HP, Lenovo, Acer, and Toshiba).

(Prediction #1) Why? Google Chromebooks are built for the web and Android will soon be merged into Google Chrome for one platform and to create a software application powerhouse computer.

Update (3/13/2013): Sundar Pichai, Head of Chrome assumes control of Android (http://goo.gl/fDpSS)

(Prediction #2) 95% of K-12 Schools and Universities within the United States, Western Countries, Spanish speaking countries and Africa will adopt Google Apps for Education (email and collaboration) or Open Source (Linux based) alternatives due to cost savings and use Google Chromebooks for standardization of testing infrastructures across multiple states (PARCC) and (SBAC | SBAC - 19 Million Students) (e.g. . This backbone will facilitate segmentation directly into schools using Google Chromebooks for examinations and eLearning using various LMS (Learning Management Systems) which do not rely on Java applications or Java browser plugins to operate. Additionally, with support from enterprise vendors like CDW. Enterprises and School districts will be able to meet all security management and objects of various safety regulations and guidelines (e.g. CDW and Google Partnership). Africa in conjunction with China could potentially become an educational powerhouse by 2020-2030. The only thing that could hold Africa, South America and China back from becoming a leader in technological innovations is corruption and the myriad systems of government throughout the continents.

Update (3/18/2013) Google Chromebooks available to Schools in More Countries (http://goo.gl/XUS7o)
Update (10/3/2013) 1 in 5 School Districts now using Chromebooks (http://gigaom.com/2013/10/03/1-in-5-u-s-school-districts-now-using-chromebooks-says-google-vp/)
Update (10/25/2013) Apple makes their OS X Operating System free for all (http://www.apple.com/osx/)

(Prediction #3) 80-90% of Java and Flash Developers will move away from Java based web applications and use HTML5, CSS3, Javascript, Python and other technologies by 2018 due to the lucrative and market momentum of web-based technologies over "desktop" centric technologies. The only companies and government agencies that will be left relying on Java will be largely as a result of their internal developer population and unwillingness to adopt change or other processes.

(Prediction #4) VMware and Citrix will release full HTML5 based VDI client applications to support Chromebooks

Update (10/15/2013). VMware releases VMware Horizon Mirage 4.3 with full support for Google Chromebooks and HTML5 Access to VDI (Virtual Desktop Infrastructure)
(http://blogs.vmware.com/euc/2013/10/announcing-vmware-horizon-mirage-4-3.html)

(Prediction #5) Microsoft didn't learn anything from Windows ME, Windows Vista or Windows 8 and will push their stock lower and relevance even lower. They will continue missteps and turn off 75% of the enterprise population by not giving user's what they want. A stripped down and secure Microsoft Windows Desktop, lower licensing costs and clearer licensing models. Microsoft's backbone is built off of licensing. It was born, lived and will die because of it. The sole focus on making money from every little thing and not Open Sourcing their technologies to gather "coolness" and developer adoption outside of the Microsoft bubble will further isolate Microsoft on into 2018. Microsoft will not pivot enough of their resources to mobile computing fast enough and will die a slow death. If Microsoft doesn't clean up it's licensing practices and put 100% of their effort into mobile enterprise computing. Their devices and services strategy probably will only work by open sourcing some of their key technologies and then charging for support and services. Their business model will guarantee that they will die.

(Prediction #6) Microsoft after failed mobile efforts and continued diminished nature of their relevance in the enterprise will look at ways to open source their desktop operating system by 2018-2020. I know...I know...I'm out of my mind right? Ok. Well...that's probably what Blackberry executives would have said in 2007 when people started to talk about the Apple iPhone and and Google Android phones and how they would decimate their company if they didn't innovate. Without significant and RAPID change from Microsoft. Their current business model will guarantee that they will die.

(Prediction #7) 65-80% of government agencies, healthcare companies, insurance companies, financial companies and enterprises will move to Open Source alternatives or Google Apps for Business, Google Apps for Education, Google Apps for Non-Profits or Google Apps for Government by 2018. Why? Simplicity...and lower TCO.

(Prediction #8) Dell will release a Google Chromebook in 2014 or mid-2015 due to competition for schools that want Google Chromebooks. HP Joined the market with a desire to no longer have to be limited in their strategy by a forced Windows/Intel partnership and released their own popular (#1 on Amazon) Google Chromebook.

Update (10/1/2013) HP Chromebook (http://h20435.www2.hp.com/t5/The-Next-Bench-Blog/HP-Chromebook11-Made-with-Google/ba-p/83539)

Update (12/11/2013) Dell to release Dell Chromebook 11 to schools.

(Prediction #9) Microsoft office will lose 85% of market share by 2018 if Microsoft doesn't move Microsoft Office to support all mobile devices for free on iPhone and Android by 2018.

Update (8/23/2013). Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer announces his retirement from Microsoft (http://goo.gl/6x4Oyy)

Microsoft Windows is a very expensive technology to maintain. Ask any company that has to move from Windows XP to Windows 7. The tools to migrate from one operating system to another is extremely complicated and requires multiple Microsoft tools (ADMT, MDT 2012 SP1, Windows Deployment Server and USMT) or non-Microsoft Tools (Too many to identify). Microsoft's software and operating system is a very expensive technology when it comes to TCO (Total Cost of Ownership).

Microsoft - (Annual General TCO - 50 Users ($310,000) 200+ Users ($1.3 Million+)
1. Operating System Licensing ($$$$)
2. Office Software Licensing ($$$$)
3. Hardware ($$$$)
4. Software to manage and deploy antivirus and malware to all machines ($$$$)
5. Firewalls to keep out the bad guys from getting into machines ($-$$$$)
6. Intrusion detection to keep out the bad guys from getting into machines ($$$$)
7. Networking backbone (cost and complexity determined by business requirements and needs) ($-$$$$$)
8. Software to manage and patch Windows Systems ($$$ if not using WSUS)
9. Software to image and deploy Windows Systems (Microsoft - Included / Non-Microsoft - $$$$)
10. Remote Management software ($$$$)
11. Networking Engineer(s), Systems Engineer(s), Project Manager(s), IT Manager(s), Help Desk Staff to keep problems with the desktops resolved as soon as possible. ($$$$$)
12. Prayer that no-one changes anything wrong in Group Policy that will break machines.
13. Fear that someone will hack into computers and wreak havoc on machines and expose company data.
14. Email and Collaboration - (Onsite - OMG Expensive (Exchange/Storage) -$$$$$ / Office365 - $$$$)

Google (Annual General TCO - 50 Users ($53,600), 200+ Users ($214, 400)
Google Chromebook Operating System - $0.00 (Vendors, OEM, Customers)
1. Google Apps for Education - $0.00 to K-12, Universities and Non-Profits
2. Google Apps for Government, Google Apps for Business ($50 per user (Email, Collaboration, Mobile Device Management, Shared File Server Drives, Calendar, Websites, Social Network, Video Collaboration and Shared document repository) / $60 per user to add Unlimited archiving and e-Discovery/Retention)
3. Google Chromebooks - $249/each + Management Console ($150) + refreshed automatically every 3 years.
4. Remote Management ($0.00)
5. Antivirus and Malware ($0.00) - Google Chromebooks are proven mostly impossible to hack into today
6. Software to manage and patch ($0.00)
7. Upgrades to Operating Systems Latest release ($0.00) and Automatic
8. Hardest Operating System to crack and hack into $1-3 Million dollar bounty offered to anyone in the world who can crack the operating system.
9. Listen up schools, universities, enterprises, law enforcement, government agencies, law offices and companies...IT Staff is NOT required to run a Google Apps infrastructure. Google Partners or contractor's can perform the work to implement the infrastructure. Management can be performed by onsite IT staff with minimal retraining. Networking and Private Cloud Server Engineers for VDI or backend server application infrastructure will still be required so the "type" of IT staff person would change to a much higher caliber since you won't need large numbers of people in the helpdesk or running around fixing PC's or imaging PC's all day.

Which direction should a company take? This is dictated by the needs of the organization and should not be by what was "always done before" but with an eye to the future of IT and business.

Personally...I'm going to enjoy looking back on this blog post in 12/2017 to see if I was crazy as a bed bug...or right on target.

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