We have all been watching the news and the latest developments that have led to the most rapid shifts in technology over the last 2 years. What we are seeing right before our eyes is a gigantic carrier battleship sized industry all of a sudden turn into a swift speed boat. Technologies have died or are breathing their last breath. The following synopsis of the current state of technology will lead to a more unified future of computing that will allow America to once again lead the pack in innovations, manufacturing and industrialization for computing.
Many people will disagree with the following assessment because they are looking at today and not 3-5 years from now or like me and others...have gotten drunk off of the Microsoft Kool-Aid.
Google Chromebooks and mobile phones will completely obsolete Microsoft Windows Desktops by 2015.
If I was a Microsoft executive, I would be loosing my mind about how to counter Google's and Apple innovations. Google is using the Microsoft playbook for decimating an enterprise's lead and market vitality. Microsoft will have no choice but to completely change their development and operational model by 2014 if they are to keep from having their entire ecosystem crash and burn like the global computer and software corporations from the 1980's, 1990's and 2000's. Microsoft will either learn and adapt or unfortunately crash and burn without rapidly changing to adapt to modern trends and future scale for mobility.
Google Chromebooks, iPhone, iPad, and Android make for the killer package to completely destroy the business line of every single PC manufacturer (Dell, HP, Lenovo, Acer, and Toshiba).
(Prediction #1) Why? Google Chromebooks are built for the web and Android will soon be merged into Google Chrome for one platform and to create a software application powerhouse computer.
Update (3/13/2013): Sundar Pichai, Head of Chrome assumes control of Android (http://goo.gl/fDpSS)
(Prediction #2) 95% of K-12 Schools and Universities within the United States, Western Countries, Spanish speaking countries and Africa will adopt Google Apps for Education (email and collaboration) due to cost savings and use Google Chromebooks for standardization of testing infrastructures across multiple states (PARCC) and (SBAC | SBAC - 19 Million Students) (e.g. . This backbone will facilitate segmentation directly into schools using Google Chromebooks for examinations and eLearning using various LMS (Learning Management Systems) which do not rely on Java applications or Java browser plugins to operate. Additionally, with support from enterprise vendors like CDW. Enterprises and School districts will be able to meet all security management and objects of various safety regulations and guidelines (e.g. CDW and Google Partnership)
Update (3/18/2013) Google Chromebooks available to Schools in More Countries (http://goo.gl/XUS7o)
(Prediction #3) 80-90% of Java and Flash Developers will move away from Java based web applications and use HTML5, CSS3, Javascript, Python and other technologies by 2015. The only people that will be stuck with Java based applications will be DOD and Federal Civilian Agencies. Change comes hard in these arena's largely due to staff protecting their jobs and contractor's protecting their income. Their not going to innovate themselves out of employment. No matter how great the change to HTML5, Javascript and modern webUI based technologies. Change will come from the top-down by force, not by innovation.
(Prediction #4) VMware, Citrix, RHEV, Ubuntu KVM and OpenStack will release HTML5 based VDI client applications to support Chromebooks
(Prediction #5) Microsoft didn't learn anything from Windows ME, Windows Vista or Windows 8 and will push their stock lower and relevance even lower. They will continue missteps and turn off 75% of the enterprise population by not giving user's what they want. A stripped down and security Microsoft Windows Desktop, lower licensing costs and clearer licensing models. Microsoft's backbone is built off of licensing. It was born, lived and will die because of it. The sole focus on making money from every little thing and not Open Sourcing their technologies to gather "coolness" and developer adoption outside of the Microsoft bubble will further isolate Microsoft on into 2015. Microsoft will not pivot all of their resources to mobile computing fast enough and will die a slow death. If Microsoft doesn't clean up it's licensing practices and put 100% of their effort into mobile enterprise computing. Their business model will guarantee that they will die.
(Prediction #6) Microsoft after failed mobile efforts and continued diminished nature of their relevance in the enterprise will open source their desktop operating system by 2016-2018. I know...I know...I'm out of my mind right? Ok. Well...that's probably what Blackberry executives would have said in 2007 when people started to talk about the Apple iPhone and what it would do to their company if they didn't innovate. Have you ever seen someone tred water for 10 hours and what happens when they start to drown? Me either...however, all I know is that without significant and RAPID change from Microsoft. Their current business model will guarantee that they will die.
(Prediction #7) 65-80% of government agencies, healthcare companies, insurance companies, financial companies and enterprises will move to Google Apps for Business, Google Apps for Education, Google Apps for Non-Profits or Google Apps for Government by 2018. Why? Simplicity...and lower TCO.
(Prediction #8) Dell will release a Google Chromebook by late 2013 or mid-2014. Dell and HP will begin offering and packaging services offerings around private clouds (VDI, OpenStack, VMware, Citrix, RHEV, Hyper-V) and Google Chromebooks by 2015-2018.
(Prediction #9) Microsoft office will lose 85% of market share by 2018 if Microsoft doesn't move Microsoft Office to support all mobile devices at a discounted mobile rate (iOS, Android, HTML5, Ubuntu Phone/Tablets) by 2015.
Microsoft Windows is an expensive technology to maintain. Ask any company that has to move from Windows XP to Windows 7. I live on the frontline's of the technology battlefield with the Microsoft tools (ADMT, MDT 2012 SP1, Windows Deployment Server and USMT) and let me tell you this...Microsoft is a very expensive technology when it comes to TCO. You still need software to manage Windows Computers (RDP is still stuck in 1995). It's very surprising, but Microsoft has not built a way to centrally manage all of their desktops from their servers remotely from one console. Which is like...huh? Their deployment tools are complicated and definitely requires MCSE certifications just to operate (thank God I have them). Mobile device management is not included. This is an extra cost....shoot everything is an extra cost. Let's not forget the annual software assurance licensing for support which is extremely complicated and extremely high cost ($25,000-$1,000,000) depending on your company or government agency affiliations (no this doesn't always include training).
Microsoft - (Annual General TCO - 50 Users ($310,000) 200+ Users ($1.3 Million+)
1. Operating System Licensing ($$$$)
2. Office Software Licensing ($$$$)
3. Hardware ($$$$)
4. Software to manage and deploy antivirus and malware to all machines ($$$$)
5. Firewalls to keep out the bad guys from getting into machines ($-$$$$)
6. Intrusion detection to keep out the bad guys from getting into machines ($$$$)
7. Networking backbone (cost and complexity determined by business requirements and needs) ($-$$$$$)
8. Software to manage and patch Windows Systems ($$$)
9. Software to image and deploy Windows Systems (Microsoft - Included / Non-Microsoft - $$$$)
10. Remote Management software ($$$$)
11. Networking Engineer(s), Systems Engineer(s), Project Manager(s), IT Manager(s), Help Desk Staff to keep problems with the desktops resolved as soon as possible. ($$$$$)
12. Prayer that no-one changes anything wrong in Group Policy that will break machines.
13. Fear that someone will hack into computers and wreak havoc on machines and expose company data.
14. Email and Collaboration - (Onsite - OMG Expensive (Exchange/Storage) -$$$$$ / Office365 - $$$$)
Google (Annual General TCO - 50 Users ($53,600), 200+ Users ($214, 400)
Google Chromebook Operating System - $0.00 (Vendors, OEM, Customers)
1. Google Apps for Education - $0.00 to K-12, Universities and Non-Profits
2. Google Apps for Government, Google Apps for Business ($50 per user (Email, Collaboration, Mobile Device Management, Shared File Server Drives, Calendar, Websites, Social Network, Video Collaboration and Shared document repository) / $60 per user to add Unlimited archiving and e-Discovery/Retention)
3. Google Chromebooks - $249/each + Management Console ($150) + refreshed automatically every 3 years.
4. Remote Management ($0.00)
5. Antivirus and Malware ($0.00) - Google Chromebooks are proven almost impossible to hack into today
6. Software to manage and patch ($0.00)
7. Upgrades to Operating Systems Latest release ($0.00) and Automatic
8. Hardest Operating System to crack and hack into $1-3 Million dollar bounty offered to anyone in the world who can crack the operating system.
9. Listen up schools, universities, enterprises, law offices and companies...IT Staff is NOT required for a Google Apps infrastructure. Google Partners or contractor's can perform the work to implement the infrastructure. Management can be performed by onsite IT staff with minimal retraining. Networking and Private Cloud Server Engineers for VDI or backend server application infrastructure will still be required so the "type" of IT staff person would change to a much higher caliber since you won't need large numbers of people in the helpdesk or running around fixing PC's or imaging PC's all day. You don't need even ONE desktop support person anymore.
Mr/Mrs. Executive or Leader or CFO....You choose....
Personally...I'm going to enjoy looking back on this blog post in 12/2015 to see if I was crazy as a bed bug...or right on target.
Many people will disagree with the following assessment because they are looking at today and not 3-5 years from now or like me and others...have gotten drunk off of the Microsoft Kool-Aid.
Google Chromebooks and mobile phones will completely obsolete Microsoft Windows Desktops by 2015.
If I was a Microsoft executive, I would be loosing my mind about how to counter Google's and Apple innovations. Google is using the Microsoft playbook for decimating an enterprise's lead and market vitality. Microsoft will have no choice but to completely change their development and operational model by 2014 if they are to keep from having their entire ecosystem crash and burn like the global computer and software corporations from the 1980's, 1990's and 2000's. Microsoft will either learn and adapt or unfortunately crash and burn without rapidly changing to adapt to modern trends and future scale for mobility.
Google Chromebooks, iPhone, iPad, and Android make for the killer package to completely destroy the business line of every single PC manufacturer (Dell, HP, Lenovo, Acer, and Toshiba).
(Prediction #1) Why? Google Chromebooks are built for the web and Android will soon be merged into Google Chrome for one platform and to create a software application powerhouse computer.
Update (3/13/2013): Sundar Pichai, Head of Chrome assumes control of Android (http://goo.gl/fDpSS)
(Prediction #2) 95% of K-12 Schools and Universities within the United States, Western Countries, Spanish speaking countries and Africa will adopt Google Apps for Education (email and collaboration) due to cost savings and use Google Chromebooks for standardization of testing infrastructures across multiple states (PARCC) and (SBAC | SBAC - 19 Million Students) (e.g. . This backbone will facilitate segmentation directly into schools using Google Chromebooks for examinations and eLearning using various LMS (Learning Management Systems) which do not rely on Java applications or Java browser plugins to operate. Additionally, with support from enterprise vendors like CDW. Enterprises and School districts will be able to meet all security management and objects of various safety regulations and guidelines (e.g. CDW and Google Partnership)
Update (3/18/2013) Google Chromebooks available to Schools in More Countries (http://goo.gl/XUS7o)
(Prediction #3) 80-90% of Java and Flash Developers will move away from Java based web applications and use HTML5, CSS3, Javascript, Python and other technologies by 2015. The only people that will be stuck with Java based applications will be DOD and Federal Civilian Agencies. Change comes hard in these arena's largely due to staff protecting their jobs and contractor's protecting their income. Their not going to innovate themselves out of employment. No matter how great the change to HTML5, Javascript and modern webUI based technologies. Change will come from the top-down by force, not by innovation.
(Prediction #4) VMware, Citrix, RHEV, Ubuntu KVM and OpenStack will release HTML5 based VDI client applications to support Chromebooks
(Prediction #5) Microsoft didn't learn anything from Windows ME, Windows Vista or Windows 8 and will push their stock lower and relevance even lower. They will continue missteps and turn off 75% of the enterprise population by not giving user's what they want. A stripped down and security Microsoft Windows Desktop, lower licensing costs and clearer licensing models. Microsoft's backbone is built off of licensing. It was born, lived and will die because of it. The sole focus on making money from every little thing and not Open Sourcing their technologies to gather "coolness" and developer adoption outside of the Microsoft bubble will further isolate Microsoft on into 2015. Microsoft will not pivot all of their resources to mobile computing fast enough and will die a slow death. If Microsoft doesn't clean up it's licensing practices and put 100% of their effort into mobile enterprise computing. Their business model will guarantee that they will die.
(Prediction #6) Microsoft after failed mobile efforts and continued diminished nature of their relevance in the enterprise will open source their desktop operating system by 2016-2018. I know...I know...I'm out of my mind right? Ok. Well...that's probably what Blackberry executives would have said in 2007 when people started to talk about the Apple iPhone and what it would do to their company if they didn't innovate. Have you ever seen someone tred water for 10 hours and what happens when they start to drown? Me either...however, all I know is that without significant and RAPID change from Microsoft. Their current business model will guarantee that they will die.
(Prediction #7) 65-80% of government agencies, healthcare companies, insurance companies, financial companies and enterprises will move to Google Apps for Business, Google Apps for Education, Google Apps for Non-Profits or Google Apps for Government by 2018. Why? Simplicity...and lower TCO.
(Prediction #8) Dell will release a Google Chromebook by late 2013 or mid-2014. Dell and HP will begin offering and packaging services offerings around private clouds (VDI, OpenStack, VMware, Citrix, RHEV, Hyper-V) and Google Chromebooks by 2015-2018.
(Prediction #9) Microsoft office will lose 85% of market share by 2018 if Microsoft doesn't move Microsoft Office to support all mobile devices at a discounted mobile rate (iOS, Android, HTML5, Ubuntu Phone/Tablets) by 2015.
Microsoft Windows is an expensive technology to maintain. Ask any company that has to move from Windows XP to Windows 7. I live on the frontline's of the technology battlefield with the Microsoft tools (ADMT, MDT 2012 SP1, Windows Deployment Server and USMT) and let me tell you this...Microsoft is a very expensive technology when it comes to TCO. You still need software to manage Windows Computers (RDP is still stuck in 1995). It's very surprising, but Microsoft has not built a way to centrally manage all of their desktops from their servers remotely from one console. Which is like...huh? Their deployment tools are complicated and definitely requires MCSE certifications just to operate (thank God I have them). Mobile device management is not included. This is an extra cost....shoot everything is an extra cost. Let's not forget the annual software assurance licensing for support which is extremely complicated and extremely high cost ($25,000-$1,000,000) depending on your company or government agency affiliations (no this doesn't always include training).
Microsoft - (Annual General TCO - 50 Users ($310,000) 200+ Users ($1.3 Million+)
1. Operating System Licensing ($$$$)
2. Office Software Licensing ($$$$)
3. Hardware ($$$$)
4. Software to manage and deploy antivirus and malware to all machines ($$$$)
5. Firewalls to keep out the bad guys from getting into machines ($-$$$$)
6. Intrusion detection to keep out the bad guys from getting into machines ($$$$)
7. Networking backbone (cost and complexity determined by business requirements and needs) ($-$$$$$)
8. Software to manage and patch Windows Systems ($$$)
9. Software to image and deploy Windows Systems (Microsoft - Included / Non-Microsoft - $$$$)
10. Remote Management software ($$$$)
11. Networking Engineer(s), Systems Engineer(s), Project Manager(s), IT Manager(s), Help Desk Staff to keep problems with the desktops resolved as soon as possible. ($$$$$)
12. Prayer that no-one changes anything wrong in Group Policy that will break machines.
13. Fear that someone will hack into computers and wreak havoc on machines and expose company data.
14. Email and Collaboration - (Onsite - OMG Expensive (Exchange/Storage) -$$$$$ / Office365 - $$$$)
Google (Annual General TCO - 50 Users ($53,600), 200+ Users ($214, 400)
Google Chromebook Operating System - $0.00 (Vendors, OEM, Customers)
1. Google Apps for Education - $0.00 to K-12, Universities and Non-Profits
2. Google Apps for Government, Google Apps for Business ($50 per user (Email, Collaboration, Mobile Device Management, Shared File Server Drives, Calendar, Websites, Social Network, Video Collaboration and Shared document repository) / $60 per user to add Unlimited archiving and e-Discovery/Retention)
3. Google Chromebooks - $249/each + Management Console ($150) + refreshed automatically every 3 years.
4. Remote Management ($0.00)
5. Antivirus and Malware ($0.00) - Google Chromebooks are proven almost impossible to hack into today
6. Software to manage and patch ($0.00)
7. Upgrades to Operating Systems Latest release ($0.00) and Automatic
8. Hardest Operating System to crack and hack into $1-3 Million dollar bounty offered to anyone in the world who can crack the operating system.
9. Listen up schools, universities, enterprises, law offices and companies...IT Staff is NOT required for a Google Apps infrastructure. Google Partners or contractor's can perform the work to implement the infrastructure. Management can be performed by onsite IT staff with minimal retraining. Networking and Private Cloud Server Engineers for VDI or backend server application infrastructure will still be required so the "type" of IT staff person would change to a much higher caliber since you won't need large numbers of people in the helpdesk or running around fixing PC's or imaging PC's all day. You don't need even ONE desktop support person anymore.
Mr/Mrs. Executive or Leader or CFO....You choose....
Personally...I'm going to enjoy looking back on this blog post in 12/2015 to see if I was crazy as a bed bug...or right on target.
